Possible scenario
Crackdown Contains March
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that federal and provincial authorities use preventive detentions, road closures, and Section 144 restrictions to limit PTI mobilization before Sept. 27. This follows the established post-2023 pattern of containing Imran Khan’s street power through policing and legal pressure rather than allowing a large Islamabad confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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