Possible scenario
Hague Group Weakens
20% Chance
Colombia's departure gives Israel and the United States a diplomatic opening to split the coalition supporting legal pressure at The Hague. Some governments remain committed to ICJ and ICC pressure, but the group's ability to coordinate sanctions and recognition policy declines.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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