Possible scenario
Pro-Israel Pivot Holds
40% Chance
Colombia's embassy move to Jerusalem and withdrawal from the Hague Group become the foundation of a durable policy reversal. The hardline populist government frames closer ties with Israel as a security, intelligence, and diplomatic realignment rather than a one-off symbolic gesture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- ESLT+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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