Possible scenario
Domestic Backlash Grows
25% Chance
Opposition lawmakers, human-rights groups, and former diplomats challenge the government's shift toward Israel. The administration remains in control, but legal challenges and street mobilization complicate follow-through on the embassy relocation and Hague Group exit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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