Possible scenario
Russian Cuts Persist
45% Chance
Ukrainian drone damage keeps several Russian refineries operating below capacity, and the crude rally caused by Hormuz does not translate into higher Russian fuel-oil output. The market treats the headline as a confirmation of product-market tightness rather than a new systemic shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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