Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Dominates
20% Chance
The Strait of Hormuz remains the larger driver for crude benchmarks, with traders focusing on tanker safety and naval escort risks rather than the Russian fuel-oil loss. Outcomes vary sharply depending on whether another attack occurs or protection efforts stabilize shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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