Possible scenario
Repairs Stabilize Supply
25% Chance
Russian refiners restore limited processing capacity faster than feared, preventing the 1 million-ton fuel-oil cut from deepening. The crude market gives back a small part of the supply-risk premium, though Hormuz keeps prices elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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