Possible scenario
Whatley Comeback
34% Chance
Michael Whatley narrows the race by consolidating Republican voters, improving rural turnout, and making the contest a referendum on national party control. North Carolina's recent Republican lean in federal races gives him a credible path despite Cooper's early polling lead.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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