Possible scenario
Recount Fight
12% Chance
The race ends close enough to trigger recount demands and litigation over provisional, absentee, or military ballots. Because the seat could affect Senate control, a delayed certification would carry modest national political and market significance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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