Possible scenario
Limited Retaliatory Action
25% Chance
Riyadh authorizes limited strikes against Houthi drone and missile infrastructure in Yemen, with Turkey and Pakistan providing intelligence, logistics or air-defense support rather than front-line combat units. This would raise near-term oil and security risk but remain below a full regional war threshold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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