Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the United States and the United Nations push both sides back toward indirect talks after the Riyadh meeting. Saudi Arabia uses the pact to strengthen deterrence while privately accepting a pause in cross-border strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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