Possible scenario
Coordinated Defensive Deployment
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan use the Mecca Defense Pact mainly to harden Saudi air defenses and improve intelligence sharing. This is the most likely path because Riyadh wants deterrence without triggering a wider Yemen or Iran-linked confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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