Repair-Led 2027 Restart

The most likely path is a technical and security-driven delay rather than a permanent break in the Kazakhstan-Germany route. Russia repairs or secures the Samara-linked infrastructure, Kazakhstan keeps pressing for transit continuity, and Germany accepts a gradual restart because PCK Schwedt still benefits from Druzhba logistics.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.