Possible scenario
Western Pressure Builds
20% Chance
The execution count strengthens the case for additional human-rights sanctions by the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. Measures likely target judges, prosecutors, prison officials, IRGC-linked commanders, and entities involved in surveillance rather than oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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