Possible scenario
Security State Prevails
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Iran's judiciary, intelligence services, and IRGC-linked security organs continue using executions to deter renewed protest activity. The state absorbs criticism from Amnesty International, the UN human rights office, and Western governments without changing course.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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