Possible scenario
Protests Reignite Regionally
25% Chance
The execution tally becomes a catalyst for renewed demonstrations, especially in Kurdish areas, Baluch-majority Sistan-Baluchestan, and university districts. Security forces likely respond forcefully, but the risk of localized unrest and labor action rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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