Possible scenario
Israeli Disruption Campaign
27% Chance
Israel concludes that the rebuilt site is approaching a usable stage and resumes active disruption. The most likely forms are covert sabotage, cyber operations, or a limited strike designed to avoid a broader regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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