Possible scenario
Contained Nuclear Rebuild
38% Chance
Iran continues reconstruction at Taleghan 2 while keeping the site hardened and partially concealed. Israel maintains surveillance and public deterrent threats, but neither side chooses immediate escalation because the site is damaged and not yet clearly operational.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.