Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Iran uses the rebuilt site as leverage rather than immediately expanding enrichment there. Oman, Qatar, the EU, and the IAEA help create a limited arrangement that reduces the near-term probability of another Israeli strike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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