Possible scenario
Pause Expands Nationally
18% Chance
Business lobbying and food-price concerns lead DHS to broaden the Kansas approach to other states with large meatpacking, farm, hotel, and restaurant workforces. This would echo the 2025 pause on farm, hotel, and restaurant arrests, reducing near-term labor disruption risk across several low-wage sectors.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Tickers
- TSN+2.7%
- JBS+1.5%
- MAR+0.5%
- HLT+0.4%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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