Possible scenario
Ban Is Narrowed
25% Chance
The White House, ICE leadership, or restrictionist allies push back against a broad Kansas carve-out, arguing that DHS cannot exempt an entire state from worksite enforcement. Mullin keeps some protections for critical food infrastructure but narrows the ban to specific counties, employers, or time periods.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- TSN+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.