Possible scenario
Kansas Ban Holds
45% Chance
DHS maintains Secretary Markwayne Mullin's Kansas-specific prohibition after meatpackers, state officials, and agricultural groups warn that plant disruptions threaten beef output. ICE shifts away from visible plant raids while employers are told to cooperate with document requests and criminal investigations outside the workplace.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
Tickers
- TSN+2.0%
- JBS+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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