Possible scenario
Mexico Sovereignty Crisis
20% Chance
The strike debate becomes a bilateral sovereignty crisis even before or without a confirmed operation. Mexico rejects any U.S. ground or air attack on its territory, and domestic political incentives push Sheinbaum to confront Washington publicly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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