Possible scenario
Limited Strikes Proceed
30% Chance
The administration moves from maritime interdiction to a limited land-strike campaign against cartel-linked facilities. The most likely implementation avoids major Mexican population centers and is framed as counterterrorism under the prior cartel designation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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