Possible scenario
Grid Attrition Continues
45% Chance
Russia continues its winter grid campaign, exploiting low Kh-101 interception rates and Ukrainian interceptor scarcity. Ukraine avoids a total grid collapse, but generation losses and repair bottlenecks force wider rolling outages through October and November.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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