Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
25% Chance
The low Kh-101 interception rate accelerates Western deliveries of Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T interceptors. Ukraine improves point defense around Kyiv and key power plants, limiting further grid degradation despite continued Russian salvos.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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