Possible scenario
Campaign Broadens
20% Chance
Russia expands the campaign beyond power plants, targeting gas infrastructure, high-voltage interconnectors and repair depots. This raises the risk of cross-border disruption and pushes the war back into a more material geopolitical-risk channel for global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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