Possible scenario
Democratic House Only
32% Chance
Democrats take the House, but Republicans retain the Senate by holding one or two of the most competitive seats. This outcome creates a more conventional divided Congress, with House investigations and budget brinkmanship but limited legislative change.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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