Possible scenario
Democratic Congress Flip
43% Chance
Democrats convert the late-cycle polling shift into control of both chambers after the 2026 midterms. The most likely version is a narrow House majority and a one- or two-seat Senate edge, giving Democrats subpoena power and agenda-setting leverage but not enough votes to overcome vetoes or filibusters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.6%
- Finance -0.6%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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