Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
23% Chance
Putin declines the trilateral format or demands terms that lead Washington and Kyiv to declare the proposal unworkable. This is a realistic downside because refinery strikes, battlefield conditions, and domestic constraints make a public Putin-Zelenskyy meeting politically costly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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