Possible scenario
Summit Accepted
38% Chance
Moscow agrees in principle to a trilateral meeting with Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, likely after extracting procedural concessions on agenda and venue. This is the most constructive near-term path because the Oslo plan gives Putin a diplomatic off-ramp without requiring an immediate ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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