Possible scenario
Conditional Engagement
29% Chance
Moscow keeps talking but attaches conditions Ukraine cannot quickly accept, such as territorial recognition, sanctions sequencing, or limits on Western security guarantees. This outcome fits Russia's repeated use of negotiations to test US pressure on Kyiv while avoiding the blame for collapse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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