Possible scenario
Talks Remain Stalled
30% Chance
The negotiations continue but fail to bridge the sequencing dispute: Lebanon wants Israeli withdrawal first, while Israel demands verifiable disarmament steps. The US keeps the process alive to prevent renewed fighting, but implementation of the June pact slips.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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