Possible scenario
Phased Pact Implementation
45% Chance
The technical military talks turn the June security pact into a sequenced implementation plan. Israel receives clearer Lebanese military and US assurances on Hezbollah-linked weapons sites, while Beirut gets a defined path for withdrawal from occupied towns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- CVX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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