Possible scenario
Limited Border Flare-Up
15% Chance
A localized security incident interrupts the diplomatic process. Both governments and Washington still have incentives to contain the clash, but casualties or attribution disputes could suspend talks temporarily.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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