Possible scenario
Donetsk Offensive Continues
27% Chance
Russia keeps Donetsk as the central military objective and uses air strikes on Kramatorsk to disrupt evacuation routes and Ukrainian logistics. The battlefield effect is serious locally but not necessarily decisive for global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.