Possible scenario
Accountability Diplomacy
20% Chance
The attack becomes a legal and diplomatic issue, with Kyiv pushing for documentation of possible war crimes. Russia denies targeting civilians, while the UN, OSCE-linked monitors and the International Criminal Court process evidence slowly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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