Possible scenario
Persistent Missile Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis continue long-range attacks despite Saudi retaliation, using Iranian-supplied missiles and drones to pressure Riyadh. This would turn the airport strike into an ongoing security problem for Gulf aviation and shipping, without yet becoming a direct Saudi-Iran conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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