Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Response
35% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with targeted strikes on Houthi launch sites and air-defense assets in Yemen, but avoids a broader campaign that would jeopardize oil facilities or Gulf shipping. This is the most likely path because Riyadh needs to deter further attacks while limiting the risk of direct escalation with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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