Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
25% Chance
Oman, the United Nations and Washington press both sides to prevent the Riyadh airport attack from collapsing the remaining diplomatic framework. Saudi Arabia may accept a narrow security pause if the Houthis halt long-range attacks and preserve a path back to cease-fire talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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