Possible scenario
SNB Turns Verbal
25% Chance
The SNB may try to slow the currency move through communication rather than immediate intervention. Because Chairman Martin Schlegel recently characterized the decline as a minor reversal, the first response would likely be verbal rather than a sudden rate move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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