Possible scenario
Foreign Rates Peak
20% Chance
The franc could stabilize if markets decide the latest foreign rate-hike impulse is close to fully priced. Under this outcome, rate differentials stop widening and investors take profits on short-franc trades.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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