Possible scenario
Divergence Extends Slide
45% Chance
The most likely path is an orderly continuation of franc weakness as investors focus on higher foreign policy rates while the Swiss National Bank stays on hold. With Swiss inflation near target, markets have limited reason to price aggressive SNB tightening immediately.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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