Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
22% Chance
The Putin meeting fails to produce even a tactical understanding, and the US again uses intelligence sharing as leverage over Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. This would reintroduce uncertainty into both Ukraine's air defense posture and wider geopolitical risk pricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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