Possible scenario
Diplomacy Stabilizes Intel
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Oslo produces a narrow US-Ukraine understanding while Witkoff's Putin meeting avoids a public rupture. Missile-launch warnings remain restored, but the arrangement is framed as deconfliction rather than a peace breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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