Possible scenario
Fragile Status Quo
28% Chance
The restored warning flow holds, but neither Washington nor Moscow changes the underlying conduct of the war. Investors view the headline as a tactical repair in US-Ukraine relations rather than a major geopolitical shift.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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