Possible scenario
US Tariff Decision
23% Chance
Washington’s September authorization of 100% tariffs remains the key policy overhang. The next move could either harden enforcement against Russian-oil trade or create room for India to show compliance through partial import cuts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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