Possible scenario
India Diversifies Supply
38% Chance
Indian refiners continue reducing exposure to Russian crude to limit the risk of US tariff penalties and payment disruptions. The most likely path is a gradual substitution toward Saudi, Iraqi, UAE and US barrels rather than a sudden embargo-like stop.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.