Possible scenario
Regional Spillover Escalation
20%
−1.6%
The missile campaign expands in range or frequency and begins to threaten Saudi energy corridors, Gulf shipping, or eastern Saudi infrastructure. This is less likely than a contained disruption, but the Iran-linked targeting-intelligence backdrop makes a broader escalation credible.
What it moves
- Consumer Services−3.5%
- Energy+3.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.