Prolonged Aviation Disruption

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Houthis continue periodic launches and Saudi regulators keep broad flight restrictions in place. The direct economic damage is concentrated in airlines, tourism, logistics, and business travel, while oil markets add a moderate security premium.

What it moves

Consumer Services−1.8%
Industrials+0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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